December finally brings the cold. The forecast, which actually was released earlier than usual this year amid "growing concern over the rising costs of heating oil," warns that this winter will have people across much of the country "shaking, shivering, and shoveling." AccuWeather long-range forecasters are predicting that 40 to 50 inches will accumulate in the city, around the average snowfall amount of 49.2 inches. The video covers both precipitation and temperature predictions, polar vortex, arctic blasts, typical snowfall, and regions that will see wamr and dry conditions for winter 2022 - 2023. This is the part of the atmosphere where the air temperature is at 0C. The bottom line is that La Nia may tilt the odds toward dry early winter conditions in the Southwest, but La Nia clearly does not eliminate the chance of wet conditions either. A person clears their car of snow to go to work, in Provo, Utah, on Feb. 22, 2023. by Craig T, Regardless of the cause, the above normal rainfall for Tucson this winter is unusual during a LaNina event. The displaced jet stream brings colder temperatures and winter storms from the polar regions down into the northern and northwestern United States. Places where precipitation was less than the 1991-2020 average are brown; places where precipitation was above average are blue-green The white box defines the Southwest U.S. region (32 - 40 N, 109-125 W) that is the focus of further investigation. 8/10: A new . But what's the long-range outlook for the next three months? Forecasts hint at abnormal UK winter: whats the long-range outlook? Again, you can see more snowfall than normal, covering a large area from western Canada down into the northwestern United States and the far upper Midwest. If youre struggling to identify any meaningful sea surface temperature differences in the map above, then you and I are in the same boat (5). travelling for the east to the west) are cold because they arrive from the cold continental interior of mainland Europe. That's still down 45% from a year earlier, however. We can see that the latest ECMWF forecast shows less snowfall over most of the continent compared to last months forecast for the entire Winter season. South West England weather - Met Office South West England weather South West England Bristol 6 Plymouth 8 Bournemouth 7 Exeter 6 Bath 5 Taunton 6 Barnstaple 6 Camborne 6 Dorchester 6. But the main focus is on global long-range weather forecasting systems. Weather.coms official winter outlook like NOAAs and AccuWeathers calls for above-normal temperatures in the South, while far-northern parts of the continental United States manage to stay below average, these conditions being driven by La Nia. There certainly other teleconnection patterns that influence western U.S. precipitation, but most of them have little to no connection with sea surface temperatures. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Again, there is an expectation that January and February will see more of an influence from the Atlantic, with the ECMWF maps indicating near-average precipitation levels for most of the UK. The jet stream is a large and powerful stream of air (wind) at around 8-11km (5-7mi) altitude. Year-Long Guide to Great Living The 2023 Farmers' Almanac offers 16 months of weather prediction starting with September 2022 going through December 2023. In addition to this, there is a reduced chance of stormy weather and gales. This figure indicates that SPEAR produces very wet early winter conditions in the Southwest for some of the La Nia simulations, with the largest differences between the wet and dry groups exceeding twice the 1991-2020 climatology (more than 200%). I did just one set of analyses focused on one particular region with one climate model, and thats why I stated up front that this is just the start of the conversation. The southern half of the country has a higher probability of warmer than normal weather. Everything you need to know about the forecast, and making the most of the weather. Winter Forecast for Southwest Michigan for 2022/2023 Impactful Winter Weather On the Way A storm system will move into Lower Michigan for Friday, bringing primarily snow but some light freezing rain could mix in across the far south. From my experience, the superposition of the ENSO and MJO teleconnections can be treated as linearly additive, so the MJO influence (like what's shown here) can constructively or destructively interfere with the expected ENSO influence. The Ohio winter 2022-2023 predictions are predicated on this being the second year for the current La Nina weather pattern. My question, regarding the un-forecast DEC/JAN 2022-23 is whether the heavy precipitation was contributed to by the unusual presence of warming near and east of the Dateline referred to by NOAA as "warm blob" NEP22A and NEP23A? Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 17:47. I don't have an explanation except to speculate that the multidecadal enhancement of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient (like what was described in this post) is helping to keep the tropical atmosphere more La Nina-like even when the typical ENSO sea surface temperature indexes are deviating from typical La Nina values. below-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, signal relative to the noise of random weather variability, Stratospheric warming due to Tonga volcano, https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winte, Southeast Colorado and Northeast New Mexico. This is a region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that changes between warm and cold phases. Therefore, the variations among these 21 ensemble-averaged values, quantified as a standard deviation of 0.194 mm/day, largely reflect the effects of the different sea surface temperature patterns among the 21 La Nias. NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have persisted in the Western U.S. since late 2020, as well as parts of the central U.S. where historic low-water conditions are currently present. AccuWeather says that the lingering water vapor in the atmosphere from the eruption could cause a warmer winter than normal but that the magnitude of the effect is unknown. Difficult to impossible travel across wide swaths of U.S. due to coast-to-coast storm. Unfortunately, a dry winter is predicted for the Southwest states, which won't help the drought situation. Warmer than normal weather and mild winter conditions typically develop over the southwestern United States, eastern United States, and eastern Canada. Warmer-than-average temperatures are also favored in the Southeastern U.S. and along the Atlantic coast. The most dynamic winter weather is usually found between the warm and cold anomalies in the Midwest and the central United States. One way we could try to address this question is to group both the wettest and driest La Nias over the Southwest in December-January and then see if there are notable differences in the sea surface temperature patterns that occurred during wetter La Nias versus drier La Nias. Snowfall rates may reach 1"/hr at times, and travel will likely . It calls for snowfall to be above normal toward the East Coast as well. This connection has been hypothesized, but the evidence is mixed. The MJO certainly can interfere with ENSO, particularly during development of ENSO through the MJO influence on tropical westerly wind bursts. . Updated 15 February 2023. I'm surprised that this is only the second La Nina winter with above-normal rainfall, but this document seems to support that claim (two of the "weak" episodes in the table with above-normal rainfall were not classified as La Nina by CPC). Lets turn the Farmers Almanac into something real and useful. Overall we still see less snowfall than normal for the first Winter month. Maximum temperature 7C. If youre wondering what sort of calculations led to this conclusion, then I will give you all the details here. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Sun, 02/26/2023 - 20:08, In reply to Thanks Nat for this cogent by Clara Deser. Last month was. I confirm from a regional point of view here in Jordan we had terribly dry December-January and the start of February was highlight with torrential rains . Jamstec used to have a lot of information on their website but much of it seems to have left after a reported breach a couple of years back. We see an equal-to-higher probability for more precipitation (and snowfall) over the northwest, extending into the Great Lakes and the eastern United States. As we emphasize on the blog, ENSO may tilt the odds toward one outcome or the other, but the forecast is always probabilistic. Higher temperatures are forecast for the West; WeatherBell projects temperatures 1 to 3 degrees above normal in the Southwest. Meanwhile, the southern U.S. is expected to have a. NOAAs Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The pattern in the map is very weak, with very small departures between the two groups. Submitted by Bob G on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 12:57. WARNING: Long-range forecasts are rarely accurate. This atmospheric river onslaught surprised many who were expecting a dry season, especially in the Southwest, not only because of the prolonged drought, but also because La Nia tends to bring drier-than-average winter conditions to the region. Despite the rocky end of the year, Southwest reported a $539 million profit for 2022. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on analysis and data provided by the Climate Mapper website. A spokesperson for the Met Office told i: With this low pressure out to the west, with the way the jet stream is positioned at the moment, its helping to spin these weather systems in towards the UK. While December was above-average as far as the temperature goes, January was a different story. New for the 2023 edition are weather summaries and maps for all four seasons in 2023. A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Nio, La Nia, and their impacts. Images by NOAA Physical Science Laboratory. Its conceivable that such differences could influence precipitation in the Southwest U.S., but these differences are much smaller than the amplitude of the largest average La Nia tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, which approach 2 Therefore, it is difficult to see how such small sea surface temperature differences could have an influence that is comparable with the average La Nia influence. As the monsoon rain band is situated south of the Equator, the Mekong sub-region . We cannot rule out the possibility that the model is missing some sort of predictable connection between a particular flavor of La Nia sea surface temperatures and Southwest precipitation. It says that temperatures there could drop 4 degrees below normal for the month something that could result in a damaged citrus crop and stunned iguanas. AccuWeather's 2022-2023 Canada winter forecast La Nia is expected to affect winter weather in Canada for the third straight year. Submitted by Mohammad Al-khateeb on Sun, 02/26/2023 - 03:19, Submitted by Aaron on Tue, 02/28/2023 - 10:46, What do you think of the recent University of Washington study postulating that this kind of triple year La Nia event may become more common and could in fact be the temporary result of cooling in the Pacific Ocean due to increased melting of ice and snow in Antarctica?https://www.washington.edu/news/2022/10/03/study-suggests-la-nina-winte, Submitted by Lois on Tue, 02/28/2023 - 11:22. Just checking the maps at this site, we can see some regions, like you mention, that have been drier than normal over the past 60 days. However, the Met Office has issued a yellow warning for parts of Scotland, including Highlands, Eilean Siar and Strathclyde, and Northern Ireland on Friday, meaning residents should expect heavy rain and some flooding of a few homes and businesses. The relief from an unrelenting drought was welcome, but too much of a good thing also meant flooding, mudslides, and dangerous debris flows. Whether you are a fan of snow, here is the latest roundup of what meteorologists are saying about the weather in the coming months.