Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. It also backed Gov. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Until this year. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Here's why. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Website Updates Paused A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. These counties could play an . Have information that relates to fraud in this election? It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Want to dive deeper? These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. (subject to censorship). used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Watauga has gone for. But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Will That Last?]. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. What are your thoughts on this article? Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. Sumter County, . And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Team up with others in your region, and help out by A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Do you know this baby? The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Free and open-source. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Arapahoe County. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. That's 14 in a row. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Ron Elving . Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. It gets a lot more interesting. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. First, what are bellwether counties? In 2020, a single. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. 108,000 people. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. There are 391 such counties. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. All Rights Reserved. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. 11. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Really stop reading. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. i.e. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. It's happened before. 03:30. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. 5. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. But it's also not unprecedented. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Seriously. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. So, where are the bellwether counties? Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Contributors wanted That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008.
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